Allies and partners can also qualify for exemptions by taking meaningful steps to reduce dependence on Russian energy. India, meanwhile, has an unusually strong reason to resist: energy security.

Russian oil has become an important component of its crude supply, and Indian refiners have been buying Russian crude in large quantities, particularly after disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. 6 billion of imports in rupees, a surge largely associated with Russian oil purchases.

The Trump administration's tariff record makes the new measure particularly intriguing. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, postponed, imposed, doubled, negotiated down, exempted, replaced and, after the Supreme Court intervened, revoked, only for alternative tariffs to appear through different statutory authorities.

The administration's original broad IEEPA tariffs were terminated after the Supreme Court ruled in February that the president could not use that emergency-powers law to impose them. Yet tariffs did not exactly die; they merely changed legal wardrobes.

The distinction matters because the Graham bill would give Congress itself a statutory framework for imposing punitive tariffs on major Russian-energy customers; it is therefore less of an executive improvisation and more of a congressional authorization for economic coercion. But most analysts assert tariff eventually is not a cheque from Beijing or New Delhi made payable to Uncle Sam; American importers would face the tariff first, with much of the cost likely passed along to American consumers or absorbed partly by suppliers and companies.

1% through February 2026, accounting for essentially all the excess inflation in that category. 7%, costing the average household roughly $1,100 a year.

So while President Trump claims the US is collecting billions in tariff revenue, Americans also pay billions more for imported goods and inputs. The tariff is therefore rather less like discovering oil under the White House lawn and rather more like charging yourself admission to your own amusement park.

If the policy drives buyers into alternative suppliers, raises global oil prices, encourages more trade outside the dollar system or triggers retaliation against American exports, the tariff cannon can develop the traditional artillery problem: the recoil is felt by the person firing it.

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