Shares of NSE, following a muted market debut, rallied over 4% to their day’s high of Rs 1,878 per share, becoming the 9th most valued company and leaving behind the likes of Hindustan Unilever and Sun Pharmaceuticals. The stock listed at Rs 1,800 apiece on the BSE, less than a 1% premium over its IPO price of Rs 1,785 a share.

It describes NSE as “The Dominator,” citing its leading market share and strong market position. The brokerage highlighted NSE’s full suite of services, technology and deep liquidity, which make it a key part of India’s financialization, calling it the “lynchpin” of India's financialization.

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For NSE, it forecasts a 12% revenue CAGR over FY26-30E, in line with the market, driven by nontransaction revenues and new products, partly offset by modest share losses in cash equities and F&O. “Upside could come from a higher P/N ratio, growing monthly options adoption, and stronger traction in new products.”

the brokerage said. 5x FY29 PER, based on the upper price band, reflecting its marquee position in the ecosystem.

Further re-rating could be driven by stronger traction in new products, which would provide upside to Macquarie's estimates. Ekay starts coverage with Buy ratingEmkay also initiated coverage on NSE with a Buy rating and a Sep-27E target price of Rs 2,050, implying around 15% upside.

The brokerage's positive view on NSE rests on three key factors. First, India's capital market development and growth story has a long runway as wealth creation and financialisation gain momentum, with India's per capita GDP expected to move from around $3,000 to $10,000 over the coming decades.

Second, NSE has maintained a resilient leadership position across capital market business segments over the decades. Emkay believes its business model has sufficient levers to adapt to changing regulatory and macroeconomic conditions while continuing to deliver profitable growth.

Third, strong profitability and cash generation at market infrastructure institutions (MIIs), including stock exchanges, allow them to command higher valuation multiples globally than other capital market players, which are more fragmented and exposed to competition. NSE commands uncontested leadership across cash and derivatives, driven by a self-reinforcing liquidity flywheel.

In the cash segment, NSE holds 93% market share while retaining near-monopoly in the equity futures and stock options segment. While BSE has captured market share following its derivatives relaunch, it believes index options are transitioning to a phase of stabilization following several regulatory rejigs.