SynopsisShares of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose more than 2% after Sebi proposed widening foreign portfolio investors’ access to physically settled non-agricultural commodity derivatives. JPMorgan upgraded MCX to ‘Overweight ’, and Jefferies retained a ‘Buy’ rating, citing the potential for higher trading volumes and earnings.

comMCX shares rise as Sebi’s FPI proposal triggers bullish calls from global brokerages. Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose more than 2% on Wednesday as international brokerages issued bullish calls on the stock after market regulator Sebi proposed to allow foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to participate in non-agricultural commodity derivative contracts, which are physically settled on domestic exchanges.

In a consultation paper issued on Tuesday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) listed proposals aimed at widening the scope of FPI participation in commodity derivatives. At present, overseas investors can trade in non-agricultural commodity derivative contracts that are only cash-settled.

For commodity index derivatives, FPIs currently can participate only where the index and its underlying contracts are cash-settled. The market regulator has now proposed removing this restriction as index derivatives are always cash-settled irrespective of whether their underlying contracts are cash-settled.

" It would also facilitate greater integration of India's commodity derivatives market with international commodity markets and support the development of Indian commodity contracts as credible price discovery venues," said Sebi, which has invited comments on the proposals.. It noted that Sebi's new consultation paper proposes to admit FPIs into non-agri commodity index derivatives, and more materially into physically-settled non-agri contracts, marking the deepest structural widening of the foreign investor base in Indian exchange-traded commodity derivatives (ETCDs) since FPIs were first onboarded in 2022.

JPMorgan reads this as a structural volume catalyst for MCX, with bullion as the primary beneficiary. Jefferies on MCX share priceJefferies has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of MCX, with a target price of Rs 3,600 apiece.

This implies more than 24% upside potential. The international brokerage noted that the FPI participation in cash-settled commodity F&O is 5-6% currently.

Similar participation in physically settled non-agricultural contracts could add 3% to MCX’s profit, it added. A deepening of commodity index options, which currently have no volumes, could add 10% to MCX’s profits, should they become 10% of monthly equity ADTO in three years, Jefferies further said.