That is the paradox at the heart of the Mecca agreement. China could still profit commercially.

Pakistani familiarity with Chinese equipment could introduce more Chinese systems into Saudi Arabia. Beijing could remain an important diplomatic and economic partner for every member of the pact.

But those gains may incur costs too." China would be careful not to become a major arms supplier to the region to undermine US interests there.

The big pictureFor Beijing, the most consequential lesson from the upheaval stretching from Ukraine to the Gulf may not be the emergence of another regional defence alliance. It’s about how difficult modern wars have become to even end on favourable terms.

The US and Israel have inflicted enormous damage on Iran, but have yet to force Tehran into submission or eliminate its ability to impose costs across the Gulf. Russia, despite its vastly larger military and economic resources, has also failed to secure a decisive victory over Ukraine after years of war.

Both conflicts underline an uncomfortable reality of our times: Military alliance or superiority is no guarantee for a win even against a weaker adversary. That matters enormously for Taiwan.

Both Russia-Ukraine and Israel-US-Iran wars may make China wary of going for a forced unification of Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made reunification with Taiwan a defining national objective.

As per reports, Xi’s plan for the PLA is to have the military capability to go for a unification with Taiwan by 2027. This looks increasingly difficult, though.

At the same time, China's increasingly muscular diplomacy and military posture have produced their own counter-reaction in East Asia. Japan is accelerating its military build-up, expanding strike capabilities and treating a Taiwan contingency as increasingly relevant to its own security.

What Beijing once dismissed as the fading architecture of US power in Asia is, in several respects, becoming more militarised in response to China's rise. That is the paradox of China's “wolf warrior” era: Pressure intended to make neighbouring countries accommodate Beijing has also encouraged some of them to strengthen military cooperation with Washington and spend more on defence.

What's nextThe crucial question is whether the Mecca pact remains political deterrence or develops into genuine military integration. Joint exercises will matter.

So will intelligence-sharing, command structures, defence-industrial partnerships, technology transfers and procurement decisions. For India, the key test will be whether Saudi Arabia allows Pakistan to internationalise future India-Pakistan confrontations through the new framework.

For China, watch something different: Whether the pact actually provides the US more leeway to put extra focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

New Delhi, Oct 24: Assam, Meghalaya and Sikkim are among 12 states and Union Territories selected for an initiative to strengthen civil defence preparedness, wi...