SynopsisNearly half of the world’s oil supply now comes from countries affected by conflict, highlighting the growing vulnerability of global energy markets. Reuters calculations based on IEA data show that Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Libya and Venezuela produced around 45 million barrels per day in 2025, accounting for more than 43% of global oil supply.

comNearly half of global oil supply now comes from conflict-hit regions. Nearly half of the world's oil supply is now coming from countries affected by conflict, highlighting the scale of disruption facing global energy markets in 2026 and eclipsing several previous oil crises.

Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data show that countries affected by conflicts involving Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Libya and Venezuela produced around 45 million barrels per day of oil in 2025. That represented more than 43% of global oil supply.

S. and Israeli attacks on Iran six months ago, which triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record.

The disruption has yet to show a clear path toward resolution. Read more: Global Market: Porsche stock falls as MHP sale, weak revenue keep investors on edgeMiddle East disruptions keep oil flows under pressureThe Russia-Ukraine war has also contributed to reductions in oil production and refining, including disruptions affecting nearby Kazakhstan this year.

S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports earlier in 2026 have added further pressure to global supplies.

Current disruptions in the Gulf have reduced oil flows by an estimated 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, according to analysts cited by Reuters. Saudi Arabia has redirected some crude shipments toward the Red Sea, while some Gulf producers have sought to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz despite the risks.

The threat to global energy flows remains elevated. Attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal in July highlighted the vulnerability of key shipping routes and raised concerns about further interruptions to international oil trade.

Refining capacity takes a major hitThe conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have also reduced global refining capacity by roughly 10%, adding pressure to fuel markets. Ukraine has targeted Russia's refining infrastructure in a series of strikes, with attacks reaching facilities as far east as Omsk, around 2,700 km from Ukrainian-held territory.